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Politics

Disinformation Tops Global Risks 2024 

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  • Misinformation and disinformation are biggest short-term risks, while extreme weather and critical change to Earth systems are greatest long-term concern, according to Global Risks Report 2024.
  • Two-thirds of global experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order to take shape over the next decade.
  • Report warns that cooperation on urgent global issues could be in short supply, requiring new approaches and solutions.
  • Read the Global Risks Report 2024 here, discover the Global Risks Initiative, watch the press conference here, and join the conversation using #risks24.

Geneva, Switzerland, January 2024 – Drawing on nearly two decades of original risks perception data, the World Economic Forum’s Global Risks Report 2024 warns of a global risks landscape in which progress in human development is being chipped away slowly, leaving states and individuals vulnerable to new and resurgent risks. Against a backdrop of systemic shifts in global power dynamics, climate, technology and demographics, global risks are stretching the world’s adaptative capacity to its limit.

These are the findings of the Global Risks Report 2024, released today, which argues that cooperation on urgent global issues could be in increasingly short supply, requiring new approaches to addressing risks. Two-thirds of global experts anticipate a multipolar or fragmented order to take shape over the next decade, in which middle and great powers contest and set – but also enforce – new rules and norms.

The report, produced in partnership with Zurich Insurance Group and Marsh McLennan, draws on the views of over 1,400 global risks experts, policy-makers and industry leaders surveyed in September 2023. Results highlight a predominantly negative outlook for the world in the short term that is expected to worsen over the long term. While 30% of global experts expect an elevated chance of global catastrophes in the next two years, nearly two thirds expect this in the next 10 years.

“An unstable global order characterized by polarizing narratives and insecurity, the worsening impacts of extreme weather and economic uncertainty are causing accelerating risks – including misinformation and disinformation – to propagate,” said Saadia Zahidi, Managing Director, World Economic Forum. “World leaders must come together to address short-term crises as well as lay the groundwork for a more resilient, sustainable, inclusive future.” 

Rise of disinformation and conflict

Concerns over a persistent cost-of-living crisis and the intertwined risks of AI-driven misinformation and disinformation, and societal polarization dominated the risks outlook for 2024. The nexus between falsified information and societal unrest will take centre stage amid elections in several major economies that are set to take place in the next two years. Interstate armed conflict is a top five concern over the next two years. With several live conflicts under way, underlying geopolitical tensions and corroding societal resilience risk are creating conflict contagion.

Economic uncertainty and development in decline
The coming years will be marked by persistent economic uncertainty and growing economic and technological divides. Lack of economic opportunity is ranked sixth in the next two years. Over the longer term, barriers to economic mobility could build, locking out large segments of the population from economic opportunities. Conflict-prone or climate-vulnerable countries may increasingly be isolated from investment, technologies and related job creation. In the absence of pathways to safe and secure livelihoods, individuals may be more prone to crime, militarization or radicalization.

Planet in peril


Environmental risks continue to dominate the risks landscape over all timeframes. Two-thirds of global experts are worried about extreme weather events in 2024. Extreme weather, critical change to Earth systems, biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse, natural resource shortages and pollution represent five of the top 10 most severe risks perceived to be faced over the next decade. However, expert respondents disagreed on the urgency of risks posed – private sector respondents believe that most environmental risks will materialize over a longer timeframe than civil society or government, pointing to the growing risk of getting past a point of no return.

Responding to risks


The report calls on leaders to rethink action to address global risks. The report recommends focusing global cooperation on rapidly building guardrails for the most disruptive emerging risks, such as agreements addressing the integration of AI in conflict decision-making. However, the report also explores other types of action that need not be exclusively dependent on cross-border cooperation, such as shoring up individual and state resilience through digital literacy campaigns on misinformation and disinformation, or fostering greater research and development on climate modelling and technologies with the potential to speed up the energy transition, with both public and private sectors playing a role.

Carolina Klint, Chief Commercial Officer, Europe, Marsh McLennan, said: “Artificial intelligence breakthroughs will radically disrupt the risk outlook for organizations with many struggling to react to threats arising from misinformation, disintermediation and strategic miscalculation. At the same time, companies are having to negotiate supply chains made more complex by geopolitics and climate change and cyber threats from a growing number of malicious actors. It will take a relentless focus to build resilience at organizational, country and international levels – and greater cooperation between the public and private sectors – to navigate this rapidly evolving risk landscape.”

John Scott, Head of Sustainability Risk, Zurich Insurance Group, said: “The world is undergoing significant structural transformations with AI, climate change, geopolitical shifts and demographic transitions. Ninety-one per cent of risk experts surveyed express pessimism over the 10-year horizon. Known risks are intensifying and new risks are emerging – but they also provide opportunities. Collective and coordinated cross-border actions play their part, but localized strategies are critical for reducing the impact of global risks. The individual actions of citizens, countries and companies can move the needle on global risk reduction, contributing to a brighter, safer world.”

About the Global Risks Initiative


The Global Risks Report is a key pillar of the Forum’s Global Risks Initiative, which works to raise awareness and build consensus on the risks the world faces, to enable learning on risk preparedness and resilience. The Global Risks Consortium, a group of business, government and academic leaders, plays a critical role in translating risk foresight into ideas for proactive action and supporting leaders with the knowledge and tools to navigate emerging crises and shape a more stable, resilient world.

Culture

World Economic Forum Report Highlights Retirement Trends as Life Expectancy Increases

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  • Due to longer lifespans, governments and employers must reshape approaches to retirement to ensure ageing populations can live fulfilling, healthy lives
  • New survey indicates shifting views on retirement and stark differences in how younger and older people see their future
  • World Economic Forum report provides new approaches to retirement that governments, employers and individuals can consider

New York, USA, June 2023 – Life expectancy increased from an average of 46 to 73 years between 1950 and 2019 and the United Nations forecasts further increases, estimating that global average life expectancy will reach about 81 years by 2100. Longer lifespans are causing individuals, governments and business leaders to rethink their approach to work and retirement.

Living Longer, Better: Understanding Longevity Literacy, a new World Economic Forum report, in collaboration with Mercer, a business of Marsh McLennan, explores how lengthening lifespans are reshaping how individuals view their working lives and retirement. The report offers recommendations for government and employers to ensure they are adequately supporting people in multiple stages of work and retirement.


The report highlights purpose and quality of life in addition to financial health and resilience – themes that are traditionally associated with retirement planning. It offers options that individuals can consider to ensure they are approaching work, learning and retirement in ways that best meet their needs.

“When it comes to longevity and living longer, healthier lives, everyone has a role on this critical topic,” said Haleh Nazeri, Longevity Lead, World Economic Forum. “How will business support an older workforce and one with growing caregiving needs, what will policymakers do to help all citizens reach retirement equity, and finally, what can individuals do at every life stage to ensure they are able to stay financially resilient in a longer life.”

“Employers are thinking more about the current age distributions within the areas of talent needed to operate their organizations and how to influence the trajectory of these distributions,” said Rich Nuzum, Executive Director, Investments & Global Chief Investment Strategist, Mercer. “To leverage longevity and fight the war for talent effectively, moving from individual roles to team-based roles can help employers take full advantage of the diverse strengths of teams that comprise a combination of older and younger workers.”

Views on Retirement  
A new survey, Pulse Poll, of almost 400 professionals indicates that women and men view retirement differently. Women, for example, are 55% more likely to say they don’t know if they have saved enough for retirement.

The poll also reveals differences in how younger and older populations view their retirement futures. Both women and those under 40 are more willing to reskill but worry about associated costs. Both groups are also more likely to feel isolated.

Further results from the Pulse Poll can be found below and in the report:

  • Health is a top concern with two thirds of respondents indicating they expect to have caring responsibilities
  • Days of “Bank of Mum and Dad” may be reversing; many younger people are likely to have to financially support older family members
  • Pulse Poll respondents over 40 target lower income replacement levels in retirement
  • People are generally unaware of how to achieve their target levels of retirement income
  • More men looking forward to retirement, while more women need to understand their financial situation
  • Women are 55% more likely to say they don’t know if they have saved enough
  • Younger people are eight times more likely to use social media for financial advice
  • 44% of under-40s want to retire by 60
  • Women and younger people are more willing to reskill but are also worried about associated costs

The respondent profiles to the Pulse Poll were homogeneous and predominantly included those who had undertaken higher education, were in more senior positions, were likely to be in employment at major global organizations and with a high level of individual agency and financial literacy.

While there are some sample limitations, the survey suggests how the findings can help start a conversation about the challenges faced and can contribute to the development of solutions for the population this group of respondents represents.

Recommendations for Governments and Employers
As people are living longer lives, business and government need to restructure their approach to later life planning. Failing to adopt a multi-stakeholder approach towards longevity will inevitably result in a significant portion of people retiring into poverty.
Recommendations are cover three key areas of work and retirement including quality of life, purpose and financial resilience.

 Government

  • Facilitate upskilling of older workers and clamp down on ageism
  • Provide incentives for employers to offer more robust leave policies for caregiving needs
  • Explore the wider use of default auto-enrollment and default investment strategies to increase and maximize savings
  • Establish safety nets such as minimum pension levels provided by government
  • Enact enabling legislation to make all jobs flexible for longer-life working if desired and to accommodate all life-stage needs
  • Offer digital skills training and equipment to ensure equitable access to opportunities for all

Employers

  • Implement programmes offering support such as carers’ leave, information and advice for those who have caregiver responsibilities
  • Understand what impact the company’s retirement plan design has on the trajectory of retirement-readiness and labour flow – check if people can actually afford to retire
  • Provide flex-work programmes for caregivers, such as job-shares; allow part-time workers to contribute to defined contribution plans; provide training programmes for workforce re-entry, similar to those for early-career employees
  • Implement and review financial wellness programmes to:
    • Cover specific life-stage needs that account for gender, cultural and ethnicity differences
    • Consider personalized models to show the impact of different working arrangements and retirement ages on pay and pension
    • Cater to low-income earners who are likely to need the most support saving and planning for retirement

Individuals can also reimagine what their longer lives might look like as the three-stage life of school, work and retirement makes way for a multi-stage life that could include lifelong learning, career breaks and new occupations in later life. This includes pursuing upskilling and reskilling opportunities, as well as prioritizing retirement and pension planning if possible.

Increasing longevity globally will require new innovations and solutions to address how people can stay financially resilient in a retirement that may be 20 years longer than their grandparents. With supportive actions from government and employers, individuals will have a chance to try new approaches to longer lives and reassess how they want to study, live, work, save and retire in ways that are different from what has been done in the past century. For the Silo, Madeleine Hillyer/World Economic Forum.