Tag Archives: government spending

Canada Debt Becoming Unmanageable Economists Warn

With the Canadian government’s high debt-to-GDP ratios, such as a ratio of debt to nominal GDP sitting at 68 percent in March 2023, economists warn that government debt could become unsustainably high if Ottawa fails to reduce spending, increase productivity, and re-establish business confidence.

“We’re not growing our income per capita, which means that we’re not going to get the tax revenues that we need, plus we’re getting a lot of people retiring. So the situation could end up becoming quite unmanageable if we keep our pace that we’re going,” said Jack Mintz, president’s fellow at the University of Calgary’s School of Public Policy.

The federal government has run back-to-back budget deficits since the 2008 financial recession, with government spending spiking during the COVID-19 pandemic. As a result, Canada’s debt as a percentage of nominal GDP rose from around 51 percent in 2009 to 74 percent by 2021, for example. Nominal refers to the current value for the particular year without taking inflation into account.

The two previous federal budgets have attempted to lower government spending, but the federal government will still post a $40 billion deficit in 2023–24, which they project will shrink to a $20 billion deficit by 2028–29.

The Liberal government’s response to criticism by the opposition that Canada’s debt could lead the country into a financial crisis has been that Canada has among the best debt-to-GDP ratios in the G7.

According to Mr. Mintz, while Canada’s debt situation is not as bad as it once was, it doesn’t mean that it may not impact Canada’s prosperity prospects.

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Mr. Mintz points out that Canada’s debt situation is not nearly as bad as in 1996. The government’s ratio of debt to nominal GDP ratio reached 83 percent that year.

Mr. Mintz also noted that Canada continues to have a triple-A credit rating according to the world’s leading credit agencies, meaning the country’s debt is not yet seen as problematic.

“We’re still viewed as having a much better credit line compared to a number of other countries. … But at some point, the credit agencies might look at that gross debt number and start asking the question, ‘Is it starting to become unsustainable?’” he said.

Lower Productivity Hampering Debt Payments

The federal government’s ability to pay off its debt could be hampered by low productivity, according to Steve Ambler, professor emeritus of economics at Université du Québec à Montréal.

“The thing that worries me in terms of federal government debt is we are currently in a period of extremely low productivity growth and low overall growth,” he said.

In March, the Bank of Canada’s senior deputy governor Carolyn Rogers warned that Canada’s poor productivity had reached emergency levels.

Although Statistics Canada said the country’s labour productivity showed a small gain at the end of 2023, that came after six consecutive quarters of productivity decline.

The right honourable Jean Chrétien.

Mr. Ambler said an appropriate way to lower the debt-to-GDP ratio is to keep government spending from increasing while also raising productivity to increase tax revenues. He said this was the strategy of Prime Minister Jean Chrétien, whose Liberal government established a budget surplus in three years by growing the economy and keeping government spending stagnant.

To lower Canada’s debt-to-GDP ratio, Mr. Ambler said the government should focus on increasing worker productivity, allowing its resource sector to grow, and easing back on discretionary spending.

He also cited a November 2023 C.D. Howe paper showing that business investment per worker in Canada has shrunk relative to the United States since 2015. Investments such as better tools for workers would increase productivity, while productivity growth would in turn create opportunities and competitive threats that spur businesses to invest, the paper said.

“Re-establishing business confidence would be almost the number one priority, especially in the resource sector,” Mr. Ambler said, adding that a future government might also be wise to lower the feds’ “wildly extravagant subsidy programs” for the electric vehicle (EV) sector.

The Liberal government has given tens of billions of dollars in subsidies for EV manufacturing projects in Canada since 2020, saying the factories will eventually create thousands of new jobs.

‘No Cushion’ to Mitigate Debt Issue

Joseph Barbuto, director of research at the Economic Longwave Research Group, has a more pessimistic view of Canada’s debt. He says that while federal debt is at levels similar to the 1990s, the crisis will be “larger” because the government does not have the “fiscal room to mitigate the downturn.”

Mr. Barbuto said that while the Canadian government was able to help alleviate its debt issues in the 1930s and 1990s by lowering its interest rates, it does not have that same luxury in 2024. The Bank of Canada lowered its key policy rate from 1.25 percent to 0.25 percent in 2020, and was forced to raise it to 5 percent by 2023 in response to rising inflation.

“There’s no interest rate cushion on the other side. Interest rates can only fall back to zero,” Mr. Barbuto said, noting that higher interest rates make it more difficult for governments to service their debt.

“The problem with the monetary system is there’s no fiscal discipline that is pushed on governments, unlike [individuals] or corporations,” he said.

“There will be a point where because of the accumulated interest with rising interest rates, eventually it’s going to overwhelm the government and then people will not lend the government any kind of capital.”

Mr. Barbuto also expressed concern over Canada’s private debt-to-GDP ratio. Private debt refers to debt owed by private, non-financial entities such as businesses and households, as opposed to public debt owed by governments and banks. Canada’s ratio of private debt to nominal GDP sat at 217 percent in December 2023 compared to 124 percent in 1995.

Mr. Barbuto said Canada’s private debt-to-GDP ratio is higher than that of Japan’s in the 1990s, and pointed out that the Japanese economy had stagnated after the country’s asset price bubble burst in 1992.

The research director believes the Canadian economy will eventually see a debt crisis and collapse in real estate that will result in austerity measures, a shrinkage in the size of government, and the “creative destruction” of the old political and economic system. He said this would be the continuation of an economic cycle that has repeatedly happened throughout history.

“[It’s] inevitable and necessary. A debt detox or deleveraging is the same thing as a drug detox. Nobody likes it, … but it’s a necessary part of the cycle for it then to go back up,” he said.

For the Silo, Matthew Horwood/Epoch Times.

Silo Reader Says All Products And Services Should Compete In A “Free Market”

Letters to the Silo

The [ image that is shown with Toby Barrett’s recent letter ] is certainly worth a thousand words. Government is consuming too much.

But why do we continue to feed government? Why would we participate in any political or economic system that is not serving our best interests?

Government is basically unproductive and can only give what it takes. Bigger government takes more and gives less.

The fruits of our labour are controlled, confiscated, and redistributed through taxation, inflation, interest, and government spending. There is also a systemic shortage of official currency, which leads to a shortage of paid employment, and the jobs that are available might be completely unproductive. We are forced to compete for currency that is systemically scarce, even though there are plenty of worthwhile activities that can be done and there are plenty of people who are willing and able to do productive work.

There seems to be an increasing level of dissatisfaction with government and the political process, but there certainly isn’t a consensus in defining the problem or offering a solution that will sufficiently address all of our concerns or satisfy everyone. This poses a challenge, but it also presents us with an opportunity to carefully examine the form and function of government, and explore a full range of possible alternatives.

If we have freedom of choice and a free market then we should be able to individually select the goods and services that we wish to purchase from a variety of producers and providers, who should be able to compete for customers based on the quality and price of their products and services. All products and services, including government programs and services, should be able to compete in a free market.

Trade and exchange should be voluntary and mutually beneficial. We should not be forced to pay for anything that we don’t want or don’t use, and we should not have to do business with anyone who consistently offers poor quality goods and services or who does not pay their legitimate debts.

If we have economic freedom then we should be able to negotiate agreeable prices, accept or refuse any form of payment, control the allocation of our credit, and use any method or medium of exchange. We should not be compelled to use a systemically scarce currency that is created as interest-bearing debt.

If the purpose of an economic system is to facilitate the production and exchange of goods and services then it should be possible to create numerous ways to serve this purpose, with various concurrent systems operating in any location. This would give us more control over our time, labour, skills, and resources.

If government is a provider of services then it should compete for customers based on the quality and price of any services that it is actually willing and able to provide, including education, health care, and defence. If government services were the best ones available then we would presumably choose to use them. Our wealth should not be confiscated and redistributed to pay for anything that we don’t want or don’t use.

We can already seek membership in various communities, organizations or other groups, based on our own political, religious, social, recreational, or business interests. If we have freedom of association and political freedom then we should even be able to choose a apolitical system and type of government, without having to move to a different place, and without imposing or choice on anyone else. This would give us the option to hire people to manage our affairs and make decisions on our behalf, but we would not be represented or lead without imposing our consent.

Crony Capitalism Warren Buffett

Any imposed political system or government is a method of control. Political freedom does not exist if an individual is forced to accept the decisions of any other individual or group, even if it calls itself a majority.

Imposed political systems and territorial governments with their restrictive geopolitical boundaries can be replaced with a variety of voluntary communities, mutual benefit associations, and autonomous protective groups, with overlapping membership in any location. Multiple communities can exist in any geographic region, without any imposed territorial monopolies for the provision of services.

Individual participation in any economic or political system should be entirely voluntary, based on choice and consent, rather than coercion and compulsion. No person is an island, but everyone should essentially be able to individually decide how he or she would like to organize and manage his or her economic and political activities.

Government is a human invention that has changed over time and will continue to change, but the direction of this change will be determined by the way we think and the choices we make.

Diverse methods and arrangements can co-exist simultaneously in any location to facilitate the production, provision, distribution, and exchange of goods and services, for the mutual benefit of all voluntary participants, at their own risk and expense. James Clayton

Note- boldfacing was not indicated in the original submitted letter to the Silo.

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