Tag Archives: citizenship

Canada’s Surging Non-Permanent Resident Population Crisis

Mahboubi, Skuterud – A Multi-Pronged Strategy for Managing Canada’s Surging Non-Permanent Resident Population
January, 2024 – Recent years have seen an unprecedented increase in Canada’s non-permanent resident population, far surpassing increases in annual admissions of new permanent residents. This unbalanced growth in the two migration streams will inevitably result in a growing undocumented population and forced deportations. Both developments risk inflaming Canada’s immigration politics and undermining public confidence in the immigration system. It is imperative that the government take immediate steps to stem the ongoing growth in foreign student and temporary foreign worker entries. Here’s how it can do it.

Recent years have seen an unprecedented increase in Canada’s non-permanent resident (NPR) population far surpassing increases in annual admissions of new permanent residents. This unbalanced growth in the two migration streams will inevitably result in a growing undocumented population and forced deportations. Both developments risk inflaming Canada’s immigration politics and undermining public confidence in the immigration system.  

It is imperative that the government take immediate steps to stem the ongoing growth in foreign student and temporary foreign worker entries.

Several factors have contributed to the NPR population surge, including ad-hoc programs aimed at expanding eligibility for permanent status, the well-documented postsecondary appetite for international tuition revenue, and eased employer access to temporary foreign workers, most notably in low-wage occupations.

Statistics Canada estimates that by the fourth quarter of 2023, Canada’s non-permanent population had exceeded 2.5 million, while entries of new permanent residents remained below 500,000 and which the government has announced will stabilize in 2025. The tightening bottleneck in temporary-to-permanent residency flows is worsened because many permanent slots go to applicants residing abroad, not non-permanent residents.

A key factor driving the growth in non-permanent inflows is the government’s repeated announcements of ad hoc programs aimed at easing the pathway to PR status for lower-skilled migrants who would otherwise struggle to clear the hurdle of the Express Entry skilled-based points system.

Examples include the February 2021 decision to provide permanent status to all economic class candidates in the applicant pool regardless of their eligibility scores and the April 2021 provision of pathways to 90,000 “essential workers” including cashiers and truck drivers. And the government expanded the program in January 2023 to give PR status to undocumented construction workers and plans to broaden the program, allowing all undocumented people to apply for permanent status. 

No wonder large numbers of migrants try their luck.

But given limited permanent admissions, large numbers of justifiably hopeful NPRs will be unable to realize their dreams. As their study and work permits expire, many will be unable or unwilling to return to their home countries. This leaves them increasingly vulnerable to workplace exploitation, which can distort wage outcomes in lower skilled labour markets, and leaves them in poverty with no recourse to government supports because they are ineligible.

Canada urgently requires a multipronged strategy to stem this ongoing NPR growth and restore the stability and integrity of the immigration system. In our view, policies should be aimed at helping applicants make better decisions about seeking NPR status in Canada by offering a straightforward, predictable system against which they can realistically assess their prospects.

On international students, we recommend reintroducing the cap on off-campus work at 20 hours a week that was waived in October 2022 and recently extended to April 30. Continued policy punting is unhelpful in restoring predictability for prospective foreign students. Study permits have become de facto work permits, and brings job-seekers, not committed students.

We also recommend restricting study permits to institutions of a certain standard. Designated Learning Institutions (DLIs) whose students are currently ineligible for Post-Graduate Work Permits should also be ineligible for study permits. The government should also revoke designation based on the measured immigration and labour market outcomes of an institution’s graduates. Those outcomes should be regularly published by the immigration department to help prospective migrants make informed decisions and combat false dreams pushed by education recruiters.  

On temporary workers, extended measures allowing, for example, 30 percent of certain workforces to be low-wage temporary foreign workers, need reconsideration. Stemming the growth in the Low-Wage Stream of the Temporary Foreign Worker Program and restoring the pre-2020 hiring regulations recognizes recent evidence of adverse effects of this program on wages and local unemployment rates.

Most important, the government needs to bring back predictability in its permanent resident admission system in the economic-class applicant pool. Though well intentioned, the one-off programs easing the pathway to permanent status are contributing to temporary resident explosion. The department needs to return to its Comprehensive Ranking System as it did before 2020. The transparency of its points system and a stable minimum eligibility score over time will mean that applicants can see what skills or training they need for entry, thereby advancing the objective of our skilled immigration program.

If these policy levers are collectively applied, they can stem the unhealthy growth in Canada’s non-permanent population, restore fairness and transparency in the permanent admission stream, and secure the immigration system’s integrity and sustainability. In doing so, we can ensure that Canada continues to be a welcoming and prosperous country for all. *note this article was sent as a letter by the C.D. Howe Institute authors to  The Honourable Marc Miller, Minister of Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada.

Parisa Mahboubi is a senior policy analyst at the C.D. Howe Institute. Mikal Skuterud is a professor of economics at the University of Waterloo, director of the Canadian Labour Economics Forum and a fellow-in-residence of the C.D. Howe Institute.

Agree? Aussie Study Reveals Canada Most Desired Country To Relocate To Worldwide

A study by Compare the Market Australia has analyzed each country around the world on their annual search volume for terms such as ‘relocating to [country]’ and ‘moving to [country]’ to reveal the world’s most desirable countries to relocate to. 

The most desired countries to relocate to? Here comes a boring chart!

RankTop destinationFavourite in X countries
1Canada50
2Japan31
3Spain19
4China15
5France11
6Turkey9
6South Africa9
8India7
9Australia6
10Greece4
10Fiji4

Taking the top spot is Canada, with our North American nation being the most desired destination in 50 other countries around the world. Canada is a very welcoming country for expats, which has led to it becoming a very diverse and multicultural destination. 

Second place goes to Japan, with 31 countries having it as their number one relocation destination, including Australia. Japan has one of the highest life expectancies in the world, which could explain why so many people are researching to move there.

Spain is another very popular choice, especially amongst those in other European countries, with 19 countries having it as their favourite in total. Known for its warm Mediterranean climate, Spain is also another destination that has excellent healthcare and quality of life.

  • The least desired countries to relocate to in the world include: Sweden, The Philippines, Bulgaria, Germany, Thailand, Egypt, Singapore, Myanmar, Italy, and Nigeria with only one other country wanting to move to each of these destinations. 

Further Study Insights:

Each country’s most desired relocation destination

Check the map below to see where each country in the world wants to relocate to the most.

While the majority seem to prefer somewhere within the same continent, there are some notable exceptions to this.

As the most searched country overall, we can see that people from as far away as India and South Africa have Canada as their most searched destination.

However, there were also some definite regional trends though. For example, many African nations have South Africa as their most searched destination.

Methodology

Using Google Ads Keyword Planner, the annual search volume for each of the following terms was found for each country in the world:

  • Houses in [country]
  • [Country] property
  • Moving to [country]
  • Relocating to [country]

This process was then repeated for each country in the world, taking a total of the searches across all four search terms, to reveal where each country wants to relocate to the most.

Note that searches within the same country were removed from the results.

In addition, all searches were carried out in English, as results in native languages proved to give inconsistent results.

For the Silo, Ruby Robinson.

Premium Passports Lose Their Shine In Post Pandemic World

As parts of the globe cautiously begin to open up, the focus is on what travel freedom and global mobility will look like in a post–Covid-19 world. Last week the EU released a list of countries whose residents would be allowed entry into the bloc from 1 July based on coronavirus-related health and safety criteria. Included on the welcome list are countries such as Australia, Canada, Japan, and South Korea that traditionally score highly on the Henley Passport Index — the original ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa. However, in a move perceived as a stinging rebuke for its poor handling of the pandemic, the US was notably excluded from the list, as were Brazil and Russia.

Although not reflected in the latest ranking, which does not take temporary travel bans into account, it is eye-opening to consider what travel freedom currently looks like for the holders of once-prestigious passports. For instance, before Covid-19 the US passport usually ranked within the top 10 on the Henley Passport Index in 6th or 7th place, with its citizens able to access 185 destinations around the world without requiring a visa in advance. However, under the current EU ban, the picture looks starkly different. US nationals now have roughly the same level of travel freedom as citizens of Uruguay (included on the EU’s list of welcome countries), which ranks 28th on the index, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 153. In another striking inversion, the US’s dramatic decline in passport power means that Americans find themselves with a similar level of travel freedom usually available to citizens of Mexico (25th on the index, with a score of 159), current travel bans notwithstanding, albeit temporarily.

This is one of many extraordinary shifts in passport power caused by the temporary pandemic-related bans. Brazilian passport holders, for example, find their passport strength greatly diminished. The country usually ranks highly on the index ¾ most recently placed 19th, with a visa-free/visa-on-arrival score of 170 ¾ but the loss of access to the EU means Brazilians currently have roughly the same extent of travel freedom as citizens of Paraguay (36th on the index, with a score of 142).

HPI_JULY_Comparison_Visa-Free_Scores_200706.jpg

Without taking the various travel bans and restrictions into account, Japan continues to hold the number one spot on the Henley Passport Index with a score of 191. Singapore remains in 2nd place with a score of 190, while Germany and South Korea are in joint-3rd place, each with a score of 189. Both Japan and South Korea have been included on the EU’s list of ‘safe’ countries, while Singapore has been excluded, which means Singaporean passport holders currently have far less travel freedom than their closest competitors on the index, which is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA). 

Dr. Christian H. Kaelin, Chairman of investment migration firm Henley & Partners and the inventor of the passport index concept, says the EU’s recent decision will have far reaching effects. “As we have already seen, the pandemic’s impact on travel freedom has been more drastic and long lasting than initially anticipated. This latest decision by the EU indicates that there is more upheaval to come. Look at the US passport, for example ¾ in 2014, it held the number one spot in the world on our index, but US nationals currently have far less travel freedom than most citizens of other wealthy, industrialized nations and even of some less developed nations, being effectively locked out of Europe. We see an emergence of a new global hierarchy in terms of mobility, with countries that have effectively managed the pandemic taking the lead, and countries that have handled it poorly falling behind.”

Immigration controls in US and UK tighten amid calls for co-operation

While the US looks set to be significantly affected by the EU’s latest decision, it has issued stringent immigration controls of its own over the past few months. Greg Lindsay, Director of Applied Research at NewCities, says that the Trump administration’s temporary suspension of all work visas will have far-reaching effects. “The executive order, signed on the 22 June, will bar as many as 525,000 foreign workers from entering the country for the rest of the year.” As Lindsay points out, this decision is only the latest salvo in White House aide Stephen Miller’s years-long campaign to curtail worker visas, arguing that they harm employment prospects for Americans.

In the UK, the pandemic’s effect on mobility has also been severe. Robert McNeil, Deputy Director of the Migration Observatory at the University of Oxford, says that the almost complete cessation of international arrivals into the country has generated serious challenges for industries that have become dependent on seasonal migrant workers from the EU. McNeil says that despite public attitudes around immigration softening, the Brexit process has not slowed down. “In May, the government pushed through the new Immigration Bill, paving the way for a new ‘points-based’ immigration system. The new restrictions would prevent many people from becoming key workers in the UK in future. Around half of the EU citizens currently in key worker positions in the UK would not meet the new salary and skills thresholds required to move to the country from 2021.”

Changing priorities in a transformed world

As premium passports lose their shine in a post-Covid world, experts suggest that the crisis is likely to make international mobility more restricted and unpredictable in the longer term. “Even as countries open their borders, it is expected that numerous governments will use epidemiological concerns as a justification for imposing new immigration restrictions and nationality-targeted travel bans that will mainly be aimed at citizens of developing countries,” says Prof. Dr. Yossi Harpaz, Assistant Professor of Sociology at Tel Aviv University. Noting the recent decision by the EU with respect to the US and other countries, Harpaz says, “The passports of both developing and developed nations stand to decrease in value, at least temporarily. In such uncertain times, global demand for dual citizenship and investor visas is expected to increase.”

Discussing the impact of the pandemic on global migration trends, Charles Phillips, researcher and consultant for Oxford Business Group, suggests that environmental health concerns could become a priority for those seeking alternative residence or citizenship. “We can expect places that are governed well and better equipped to deal with pandemics to become destinations people will seek to move to. Just as travel choices will likely be more strongly influenced by health considerations, we may see those acquiring alternative residence or citizenship placing a greater emphasis on a country’s health policies when deciding where to reside.”

Dr. Juerg Steffen, CEO of Henley & Partners, says the growing demand for additional residence and citizenship options comes as no surprise. “We have seen extraordinary upheaval over the past few months, with many certainties falling away. For investors and their families, having a second citizenship or an alternative residence is an even more precious asset than ever before, as concerns over access to first-rate healthcare, global mobility, and quality of life take on a new urgency. In turn, investment migration programs provide invaluable economic security to the countries that offer them.

As we enter the worst recession since the Great Depression, a small country like Montenegro, for instance, is better equipped to weather the storm. The recently launched Montenegro Citizenship-by-Investment Program provides permanent access and the right to stay in this beautiful and safe European country. It also provides the country with an immediate liquidity injection of much needed debt-free foreign capital that can be used to buffer the impact of the pandemic and create significant societal value.” For the Silo, Sarah Nicklin.

About the 2020 Henley Passport Index

Boasting cutting-edge expert commentary and historical data spanning 15 years, the Henley Passport Index is the original ranking of all the world’s passports according to the number of destinations their holders can access without a prior visa. The ranking is based on exclusive data from the International Air Transport Association (IATA), which maintains the world’s largest and most accurate database of travel information, and it is enhanced by extensive, ongoing research by the Henley & Partners Research Department.  Along with the Kälin  – Kochenov Quality of Nationality Index, it is considered a major reference tool for global citizens and the standard reference for governments in this field.

About Henley & Partners

Henley & Partners is the global leader in residence and citizenship planning. Each year, hundreds of wealthy individuals and their advisors rely on our expertise and experience in this area. The firm’s highly qualified professionals work together as one team in over 30 offices worldwide.

The concept of residence and citizenship planning was created by Henley & Partners in the 1990s. As globalization has expanded, residence and citizenship have become topics of significant interest among the increasing number of internationally mobile entrepreneurs and investors whom we proudly serve every day.

The firm also runs a leading government advisory practice that has raised more than USD 8 billion in foreign direct investment. Trusted by governments, the firm has been involved in strategic consulting and in the design, set-up, and operation of the world’s most successful residence and citizenship programs.