Doha, January 2024 // The Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies announced the results of their public opinion poll regarding the Israeli war on Gaza on Wednesday 10 January 2024. The poll was carried out on a sample of 8000 respondents (men and women) from 16 Arab countries. The survey questions were selected to determine the opinions of citizens in the Arab region on important topics related to the Israeli war on Gaza.
The results of the survey demonstrate the locality of the war as felt by Arab public opinion, with 97% of respondents expressing psychological stress (to varying degrees) as a result of the war on Gaza. 84% expressed a sense of great psychological stress.
Extent of psychological stress felt during the war on Gaza
About 80% of respondents reported that they regularly follow news of the war, compared to 7% who said that they do not follow it, a further indication that the Arab public sees this war as a local event. To access the news 54% of respondents relied on television, compared to 43% who relied on the internet.
Extent of news followship about Israel’s war on Gaza
It is noteworthy that the results highlighted that Arab public opinion does not believe that the military operation carried out by Hamas on 7 October 2023 was in pursuit of a foreign agenda. 35% of respondents considered that the most important reason for the operation was the continued Israeli occupation of the Palestinian territories, while 24% attributed it mostly to defence against Israel’s targeting of Al-Aqsa Mosque, and 8% saw it as a result of the ongoing siege of the Gaza Strip.
The most important motivations for Hamas to carry out the military operation on 7 October 2023
Most important | Second most important | |
The ongoing Israeli occupation of Palestinian land | 35 | 13 |
Defending al-Aqsa Mosque against attacks | 24 | 21 |
The ongoing blockade of Gaza | 8 | 12 |
Ongoing and expanding settlement on Palestinian land | 6 | 8 |
Liberating Palestinian detainees and prisoners in Israeli prisons | 6 | 13 |
Israel’s rejection of the establishment of a Palestinian state | 4 | 5 |
The United States’ failure to achieve a just peace | 2 | 3 |
The international community’s disregard for Palestinian rights and the ongoing occupation | 4 | 5 |
Halting the normalization process between Arab governments and Israel | 2 | 3 |
Carrying out the plan or agenda of a foreign power such as Iran | 2 | 2 |
Other | 2 | 1 |
Don’t know / Declined to answer | 5 | 0 |
No second option | 0 | 14 |
Total | 100 | 100 |
While 67% of respondents reported that the military operation carried out by Hamas was a legitimate resistance operation, 19% reported that it was a somewhat flawed but legitimate resistance operation, and 3% said that it was a legitimate resistance operation that involved heinous or criminal acts, while 5% said it was an illegitimate operation.
Assessments of Hamas’ military operation on 7 October 2023
The results showed that there is an Arab consensus of 92% expressing solidarity with the citizens of the Arab region with the Palestinian people in Gaza. While 69% of respondents expressed their solidarity with Palestinians and support for Hamas, 23% expressed solidarity with Palestinians despite opposing Hamas, and 1% expressed a lack of solidarity with the Palestinians.
Solidarity with Palestinians and support for Hamas
The majority of respondents rejected comparisons between Hamas and ISIS made by predominately Israeli and Western politicians and media personalities.
Comparisons between Hamas and ISIS
When asked about the responses of regional and international powers to Israel’s war on Gaza, 94% considered the US position negatively, with 82% considering it very bad. In the same context, 79%, 78%, and 75% of respondents viewed positions of France, the UK, and Germany negatively. Opinion was split over the positions of Iran, Turkey, Russia, and China. While (48%, 47%, 41%, 40%, respectively) considered them positively (37%, 40%, 42%, 38%, respectively).
Evaluation of international and regional positions
In the same context, 76% of respondents reported that their position toward the United States following the Israeli war on Gaza had become more negative, indicating that the Arab public has lost confidence in the US. Furthermore, respondents demonstrated a near consensus (81%) in their belief that the US government is not serious about working to establish a Palestinian state in the 1967 occupied territories (The West Bank, Jerusalem, and Gaza).
About 77% of respondents named the United States and Israel as the biggest threat to the security and stability of the region. While 51% saw the United States as the most threatening, 26% considered the biggest threat to be Israel. While 82% of respondents reported that US media coverage of the war was biased towards Israel, only 7% saw it as neutral.
How opinion on US policy in the Arab region has changed since the war on Gaza
Evaluation of US seriousness in establishing a Palestinian state in the 1967 Occupied Palestinian lands
Biggest threats to the peace and stability of the region
Greatest Threat | Second Greatest Threat | |||||||
Gaza war | 2022 | 2020 | 2018 | Gaza War | 2022 | 2020 | 2018 | |
United States | 51 | 39 | 44 | 43 | 25 | 25 | 23 | 28 |
Israel | 26 | 41 | 37 | 37 | 33 | 28 | 38 | 40 |
Iran | 7 | 7 | 10 | 13 | 10 | 13 | 19 | 15 |
Russia | 4 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 7 |
France | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 3 | 1 |
Turkey | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 2 |
China | 1 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 |
Other | 1 | — | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
Don’t know / Declined to answer | 6 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 0 | — | — | — |
No second option | 0 | — | — | — | 7 | 17 | 6 | 7 |
Aggregate | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 | 100 |
Evaluation of US media coverage of the war on Gaza
Arab public opinion sees the Palestinian Cause as an Arab issue, and not exclusively a Palestinian issue. A consensus of 92% believe that the Palestinian question concerns all Arabs and not just the Palestinians. On the other hand, 6% said that it concerns the Palestinians alone and they alone must work to solve it. It is worth noting that this percentage is the highest recorded since polling began in 2011, rising from 76% at the end of 2022, to 92% this year. Some countries recorded significant increases. In Morocco, it rose from 59% in 2022 to 95%, in Egypt from 75% to 94%, in Sudan from 68% to 91%, and in Saudi Arabia from 69% to 95%, a statistically significant increase that represents a fundamental shift in the opinions of the citizens of these countries.
Consideration of the Palestinian Cause as an Arab issue over time
Arab public opinion is almost unanimous in rejecting recognition of Israel, at a rate of 89%, up from 84% in 2022, compared to only 4% who support its recognition. Of particular note is the increase in the percentage of those who rejected recognition of Israel in Saudi Arabia from 38% in the 2022 poll to 68% in this survey. Such a statistically significant increase also applies to other countries such as Morocco, where the percentage rose from 67% to 78%, and Sudan, where it increased from 72% to 81%.
Support/opposition for recognizing Israel over time
When asked about their opinions on what measures Arab governments should take in order to stop the war in Gaza, 36% of respondents stated that Arab governments should suspend all relations or normalization processes with Israel, while 14% of them stated that aid and support should be brought into Gaza without Israeli approval, and 11% said that the Arab governments should use oil as a weapon to assert pressure on Israel and its supporters.
Measures that should be taken by Arab governments to stop the war on Gaza
Most important measure | Second most important measure | |
Suspend relations or normalization with Israel | 36 | 15 |
Deliver aid to Gaza without Israeli approval | 14 | 16 |
Use the oil weapon to pressure Israel and its supporters | 11 | 13 |
Establish a global alliance to boycott Israel | 9 | 11 |
Provide military aid to Gaza | 8 | 10 |
Announce military mobilization | 5 | 6 |
Reconsider relations with the United States | 4 | 6 |
Reconsider relations with states that support Israel’s war on Gaza | 3 | 5 |
Build alliances with states that have taken practical steps against Israel | 3 | 4 |
Other | 3 | 2 |
Don’t know / Declined to answer | 4 | 0 |
No second option | 0 | 12 |
Total | 100 | 100 |
There is a near consensus among Palestinian respondents from the West Bank (including Jerusalem), around 95%, that safety and freedom of movement between the governorates and cities of the West Bank and their sense of security and personal safety have been affected negatively since 7 October 2023.
Negative effects experienced in the West Bank since 7 October 2023
A further 60% of Palestinian respondents in the West Bank said that they had been subjected to or were witnesses to raids by the occupation army forces, while 44% said that they were subjected to arrest or interrogation by the Israeli army, and 22% reported that they were subjected to harassment by settlers.
Frequency of witnessing or happening upon incidences of raids, arrests, or settler harassment in the West Bank since 7 October 2023
This survey is the first of its kind to gauge public opinion on the topic across the Arab region. The field work was conducted from 12 December 2023 to 5 January 2024 in Mauritania, Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Sudan, Yemen, Oman, Qatar, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Jordan, Lebanon, and the West Bank, Palestine (including Jerusalem). The surveyed communities represent 95% of the population of the Arab region and its far-flung regions. The sample in each of the aforementioned communities was 500 men and women, drawn according to cluster and self-weighted sampling methods to ensure that every individual in each country had an equal probability of appearing in the sample.
For the Silo, Dr Ahmed Hussein, researcher at the Arab Center for Research and Policy Studies.
The NDP’s Palestine Motion Was Wrong-Headed From the Start
By Conrad Black
The stormy debate in Canada’s House of Commons recently over the NDP’s motion to recognize a Palestinian state,
ending with a profound last-minute
government modification of the bill, revealed the widespread
misunderstanding in Canadian official circles of the nature of the
present conflict in Gaza. As originally formulated, while the NDP motion
unambiguously recognized the right of Israel to exist, implicitly as a
Jewish state, it ascribed no blame whatever to Hamas, which has governed
Gaza for over 16 years, for the outbreak of the present war.
No such motion could remotely be acceptable in the legislature of any
country that authentically wishes a just resolution of the ancient
conflict in the Middle East now raging in Gaza. It is not six months ago
that Hamas, which Canada recognizes as a terrorist organization,
violated a long-agreed ceasefire with Israel, invaded that country by
land, sea, air, and tunnel, and brutally massacred approximately 1,200
Israelis, 85 percent of them civilians and many of those women, the very
young, and the elderly. In many cases, women and children were violated
and murdered in the most depraved and sadistic manner imaginable, with
the declared objective of incurring the greatest possible revulsion in
Israel and the rest of the civilized world. It was a vintage case of
premeditated terrorism.
It was also the greatest single death toll of Jews in one day since the
end of the Holocaust, with the liberation of the Nazi death camps in the
last weeks of the Second World War in Europe, not excluding the wars of
survival that Israel was forced to wage in 1948, 1967, and 1973, as well
as the Suez War of 1956. Israel suffered a loss of life that was
proportionately 20 times as great as the American loss of life at Pearl
Harbor, which was at least almost entirely confined to personnel of the
United States Navy, and in the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001, in
New York and Washington. Israel immediately announced that it was at
war, formally confirmed that condition, and formed an all-party national
unity government representing all shadings of opinion among the almost
80 percent Jewish population of that country, which was created by the
United Nations as a Jewish state and homeland in 1948.
As formulated—and this same misconception affected much of the debate
over the NDP measure—the atrocities of Oct. 7, 2023, were treated as
just another border incident in the long history of skirmishing between
Israel and extreme Muslim entities on its borders. The character of that
onslaught was intended by its authors and accepted by its victims to be
an act of war, not just a border incident, and this was stubbornly
ignored by the New Democrats in composing their bill. They presented
what amounted to a no-fault motion, seeking the restoration of a peace
that has never existed since Israel unilaterally and voluntarily
withdrew from Gaza in 2006.
The real problem in the Arab/Israel conflict has been successfully
reduced to a dispute between Israel and the adjoining territories, whose
status has not been agreed upon, which claim to represent a nationality
separate and distinct from the other Arab countries in the area, and who
further deny that the Jews have any right to a Jewish state. This is no
longer a view that is shared by the Arab powers who, despite the
customary window-dressing of support for the Palestinians, are sitting
conspicuously on their hands. They detest the Muslim terrorists just as
much as the Israelis do and are ultimately more dangerously threatened
by them than Israel is.
An appropriate measure for the Canadian Parliament would have placed the
blame for this conflict squarely where it belongs, and would have
emphasized the sine qua non for any resolution of the problem would be
for the stateless Arabs, in the still unallocated territory of the old
League of Nations Palestine mandate, to recognize the right of Israel to
exist as a Jewish state in exchange for the recognition of their right
to a state whose borders would have to be negotiated. This is what the
British foreign secretary and former prime minister, Arthur Balfour,
proposed in 1917 when the Turks still ruled the territory. And this is
the basis for Palestinian claims to nationality.
Balfour promised a homeland for the Jewish people without compromising
the rights of the Arabs. It is the details of this almost impossible
demarcation that have yet to be determined. No well-meaning calls for a
ceasefire and the triumph of humanitarian instincts—in a place where
any such benign human trait has rarely been in evidence since biblical
times—will facilitate peace, promote Western unity on the issue, or
confirm any distinction whatever upon Canada.
The Jews have been a presence in the Middle East for over 5,000 years
and were one of the larger groups along the eastern Mediterranean shore
until the majority of Jews became Christians in the early Christian era
and in emulation of Christ himself, an Aramathean Jew ethnically, but
evidently the first Christian. The Palestinians, initially the
Philistines, arrived by sea approximately 2,600 years ago but never
actually governed themselves beyond tribal matters, as first the
Persians, then the Macedonians, then the Seleucids, Romans, Byzantines,
Arabians, Christian crusaders, Turks, and the British and French
governed the geography now claimed by the Palestinians.
There is absolutely no contradiction between endorsing the rights of
Israel to exist as a Jewish state, and the rights of the Palestinians to
have their own state. The Palestinians were undoubtedly roughly treated
by Israel at the founding of that state, but in the context of all of
the Arab powers attacking Israel and urging both revolt and flight upon
the Palestinians. They have been shabbily treated as pawns by the Arabs
since.
It is the Arab powers, and not Israel, that has maintained the
Palestinians in their destitute and radicalized condition, and it is the
ancient enemy of the Arabs—the Persians, Iran—which now subsidizes
Palestinian terrorism and uses the Palestinians as cannon fodder in the
completely illegal but historically precedented Iranian effort to
encroach upon the Arabs, while sounding the most hateful tocsin of all:
anti-Semitism. One more time, and despite the fact that the world
created Israel as a homeland for the Jews, the Jews are to be
subjugated, expelled, or simply murdered.
Shame on all those who would facilitate such an infamy on a people that
has been oppressed so often, has suffered so deeply and unjustly, and
yet has achieved so much and has made the desert bloom in the only
democracy in the Middle East. I excuse the New Democratic MPs from being
useful idiots for the parties of evil unintentionally, but their
ignorance of the implications of their motion cannot be so easily
excused. The fact that the government came to its senses just before the
NDP motion passed, to turn it into the usual pablum of irrelevant and
hopeful platitudes, is slightly commendable. Better by far is the
position of the Conservative Party from the outset that the current
conflict is a just response by Israel to a monstrous provocation.
The Hamas leadership has declared that it will win if it is not
exterminated as a military and terrorist force. The united government of
Israel has pledged to exterminate it as a military and terrorist force,
and this course is the only discernible method to translate the present
conflict into serious progress towards a comprehensive and durable
solution.
It is clear from the ratio of combat to noncombatant deaths that Israel
is proceeding as gently as it can. We should encourage Israel to allow
as many women, children, and elderly people out of Rafah as possible and
to assure that the unambiguously civil population receives adequate
assistance, but we should also encourage them to wipe out Hamas as a
terrorist organization to the last individual. It is not for us or any
other country to tell Israel how to win this war. Israel is acting on
its pledge after the Holocaust that Jews would “never again” go
passively in large numbers to their deaths. Nor should anyone ask that
of them.
The road to peace in this conflict is not a “peace of the
brave”—it is the extermination of the evil by the just.
I would love to hear from you. You can email me at
conrad.black@epochtimes.ca Please mention the Silo when contacting me.